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Figure 7 | Malaria Journal

Figure 7

From: A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology

Figure 7

Effects of combining IRS and ITN. a, b) Probability of Eradication and Estimate Variance for perfect bed nets and IRS, which do not decay, for fully indoor feeding and resting mosquitoes c, d) Bed nets still prevent all nighttime feeds, but only kill 60% of mosquitoes attempting to feed. IRS kills 60% of post-indoor feeding mosquitoes in treated houses. Eradication is no longer possible in many previously possible parameter regions. e, f) Effect of varying indoor feeding and anthropophily of the An. arabiensis population for 90 percent IRS coverage with no decay of insecticide and p kill, IRSpostfeed = 1. The multiplier for larval habitat set to 1.0 for all three sets of simulations, and increasing larval habitat increases the level of coverage required, but not as dramatically as changing the adult mortality. Dark blue regions in a, c, e correspond to parameter regimes in which the estimated probability of local elimination is over 0.9 and dark red less than 0.1. Level sets for mean estimated probability of elimination and for probability estimate variance are labeled.

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