Table 1 Model and simulation parameters

Habitat scalars K_temp

1.25 × 10⁹ for gambiae ss and 11.25 × 10⁹ for arabiensis

Fit to site-specific data through simulation

Habitat scalar K_semi

6 × 10⁸ for funestus

Fit to site-specific data through simulation

Habitat time constants k_tempdecay and τ_semi

0.05 (k_tempdecay)

0.01/day (τ_semi)

Fit through simulation

Larval development Arrhenius parameters a₁, a₂

8.42 × 10¹⁰, 8.3 × 10³

Fit to traditional curve in [4]

Incubation period Arrhenius parameters a₁, a₂

1.17 × 10¹¹, 8.4 × 10³

Fit to traditional curve in [4]

Duration of immature

4 days

Not a very sensitive parameter, given the habitat fit to adult population

Days between feeds

3 days

2-4 days [11]

Human blood index

0.95 for gambiae ss and funestus, variable for arabiensis

[69]. The uncertain value for arabiensis is the focus of detailed analyses.

Indoor feeding

To explore effects, gambiae and funestus were set as highly endophilic and arabiensis was varied

Female eggs per female oviposition

100

A more accurate value would be closer to 80

Modification of egg batch size for infection

0.8

Adult life expectancy

10 days

[9–11]

Transmission modifier b

0.5

[58]

Mosquito infection modifier c

0.2

Will in reality depend on human infectiousness [36], here set to be uniform for simplicity

Human feeding mortality

0.1

Uncertain

Human feeding mortality for sporozoite positive

0.15

Uncertain