Figure 2

The spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2010. Panel A shows the 2010 spatial Limits of P. falciparum malaria risk defined by Pf API with further medical intelligence, temperature and aridity Masks. Areas were defined as stable (dark grey areas, where Pf API ≥0.1 per 1,000 pa), unstable (medium grey areas, where Pf API < 0.1 per 1,000 pa) or no risk (light grey, where Pf API = 0 per 1,000 pa). The community surveys of P. falciparum prevalence conducted between January 1985 and June 2010 are plotted. Of the 23,612 surveys collected, 22,212 satisfied the inclusion criteria for modelling (see Methods and Additional File 1, 2) and are shown here. The survey data are age-standardized [40] (Pf PR_2-10) and presented as a continuum of blue to red from 0%-100% (see map legend), with zero-valued surveys shown in white. Panel B shows the MBG point estimates of the annual mean Pf PR_2-10 for 2010 within the spatial limits of stable P. falciparum malaria transmission, displayed on the same colour scale. Areas of no risk or unstable risk are as in (A).