Figure 3

The Spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum malaria Pf PR _2-10 in 2010 stratified by endemicity class [2], and associated uncertainty. Panel A shows predictions categorized as low risk Pf PR_2-10 ≤5% light red; intermediate risk Pf PR_2-10 > 5% to < 40%, medium red; and high risk Pf PR_2-10 ≥40%, dark red. The map shows the class to which Pf PR_2-10 has the highest predicted probability of membership. The rest of the land area was defined as unstable risk (medium grey areas, where Pf API < 0.1 per 1,000 pa) or no risk (light grey). Panel B shows the probability of Pf PR_2-10 being in the class to which it was assigned as a yellow to blue continuum from $0.\dot{3}-1$. Any value above $0.\dot{3}$ is better than a chance allocation. Panel C shows the population-weighted index of uncertainty. This index shows the likely importance of uncertainty assessed by the product of the log of population density and the reciprocal of the probability of correct class assignment, rescaled from 0-1 to correspond to Panel B so that least uncertain areas have higher values in blue and most uncertain have lower values in yellow. The index is shown for the most probable Pf PR_2-10 endemicity class.