The spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum basic reproductive number under control ( PfR
) in 2010. Panel A shows the point estimate (posterior median) PfRc prediction for each pixel within the stable limits of transmission in 2010. The colour scale is logarithmic to allow better differentiation across the heavily positively skewed distribution of values. Areas of unstable transmission (medium grey areas, where Pf API < 0.1 per 1,000 pa) or no risk (light grey, where Pf API = 0 per 1,000 pa) are also demarked. Panels B and C provide two indicators of the uncertainty associated with predictions, showing areas with a median prediction less than two or less than ten but where the 90th percentile is at least an order of magnitude larger.