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Table 4 LMM2004 and LMM2010 performance

From: Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. II. Calibration and validation for West Africa

  criteria number (see Table 2) criteria number (see Table 2)
SC(x) 1 2 3 4 5 6 LMM2004 1 2 3 4 5 6 LMM2010
SC(HBR a ) 7(16) 5(16) 5(13) 0(7) -60 - -43(52) 14(16) 8(16) 11(13) 4(7) 0 - 37(52)
SC(CSPR a ) 6(18) 0(16) 2(14) 1(7) - - 9(55) 14(18) 4(16) 12(14) 3(7) - - 33(55)
SC(EIR a ) 12(17) 7(16) 10(13) 1(8) -50 - -20(54) 15(17) 7(16) 13(13) 6(8) 0 - 41(54)
Σ 25(51) 12(48) 17(40) 2(22) -110 - -54(161) 43(51) 19(48) 36(40) 13(22) 0 - 111(161)
SC(Seas) 11(16) 5(12) 7(9) 4(5) - - 27(42) 15(16) 4(12) 8(9) 4(5) - - 31(42)
SC(MSeas) 13(14) 5(12) 4(7) 0(4) - - 22(37) 12(14) 9(12) 7(7) 0(4) - - 28(37)
SC(XSeas) 12(17) 4(14) - - - 2(10) 18(41) 15(17) 6(14) - - - 2(10) 23(41)
SC(SSeas) 11(17) 2(14) - - - 3(10) 16(41) 16(17) 7(14) - - - 5(10) 28(41)
SC(ESeas) 15(16) 3(12) - - - 4(9) 22(37) 13(16) 3(12) - - - 2(9) 18(37)
Σ 62(80) 19(64) 11(16) 4(9) - 9(29) 105(198) 71(80) 29(64) 15(16) 4(9) - 9(29) 128(198)
SC(PR a ) 4(13) 1(9) 2(5) 1(2) - - 8(29) 9(13) 3(9) 3(5) 1(2) - - 16(29)
SC(PR max, a ) 7(11) 2(7) 3(5) 0(2) - - 12(25) 8(11) 4(7) 4(5) 0(2) - - 16(25)
SC(PR min, a ) 3(12) 1(8) 0(5) 0(2) - - 4(27) 5(12) 1(8) 2(5) 0(2) - - 8(27)
Σ 14(36) 4(24) 5(15) 1(6) - - 24(81) 22(36) 8(24) 9(15) 1(6) - - 40(81)
SC(all) 101(167) 35(136) 33(71) 7(37) -110 9(29) 75(440) 136(167) 56(136) 60(71) 18(37) 0 9(29) 279(440)
  1. Performance of LMM2004 and LMM2010 relative to entomological and parasitological field studies in West Africa. Digits are taken in bold, when either the LMM2004 or the LMM2010 performs better. Values in italics indicate no difference between the two model versions. The numbers in brackets refer to points that could be theoretically achieved (see text). Inserted are the scores of the LMM2004 and LMM2010 in terms of single criteria (see Table 2) as well as to their sum (columns: LMM2004 and LMM2010). Columns: SC(x): skill score with regard to variable x; 1: score regarding the first criterion (overlap); 2: enclosure; 3: median enclosure; 4: median quartile enclosure; 5: penalty; 6: frequency. Subtotals (Σ) are furthermore inserted in terms of the skill scores of entomological (HBR a , CSPR a , and EIR a ), malaria seasonality (Seas, MSeas, XSeas, SSeas, and ESeas), as well as parasitological variables (PR a , PR max, a , and PR min, a ). The comparison of the skill scores of the eleven malaria variables with regard to the performance of the LMM2004 and LMM2010 (including only values from columns: LMM2004 and LMM2010) reveals a P value of 0.0064 in terms of the Wilcoxon signed rank test.