Skip to main content

Table 2 Components of the discrepancy between 2008 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimates for children under five years and the actual LLIN order in Southern and Lake Zones

From: Design, implementation and evaluation of a national campaign to distribute nine million free LLINs to children under five years of age in Tanzania

Source of Variance Range (%) Average (%) Remaining variance after exclusion of each factor (%)
Buffer estimated by VEOs* 1.7-11.9 5 36.8
Additional 5% village buffer† - 5 31.8
DMO 5% buffer‡ - 5 26.8
Additional nets due to bale rounding** 3-7 5 21.8
Over-registration of children aged five years†† 0-20 7 14.8
Estimate of NBS projection error*** - 14.8 N/A
Total difference between order size and NBS projections 12-68 42 42
  1. *Village Executive Officers (VEOs) estimate of the number of children under 5 years missed on the registration reports. This is capped at 5% of the total village order
  2. †This automatic 5% buffer at the village level was removed following an analysis of the over-registration
  3. ‡This buffer was shifted to a 5% ward level buffer to better facilitate reallocation to village level
  4. ** This buffer was removed following an analysis of the over-registration
  5. †† This estimation is derived from a comparison of age distribution between 4,000 register book entries and the NBS projections
  6. *** This figure comes from the subtraction of all other factors