Mapping malaria risk among children in Côte d’Ivoire using Bayesian geo-statistical models

Malaria Journal

Table 1 Parameter estimates based on logistic regression models for Plasmodium spp. prevalence in children aged <16 years in Côte d’Ivoire using compiled data from surveys carried out between 1988 and 2007

	Non-spatial model		Non-spatial model with exchangeable random effects		Stationary spatial model		Non-stationary spatial model
Model parameter	(Model 1)		(Model 2)		(Model 3)		(Model 4)
Model parameter	OR^a	BCI^b	OR^a	BCI^b	OR^a	BCI^b	OR^a	BCI^b
Elevation	1.44	1.40, 1.48	1.07	1.01, 1.13	1.05	0.99, 1.11	1.05	0.98, 1.11
Distance to rivers	1.08	1.06, 1.11	1.02	0.94, 1.10	0.98	0.91, 1.06	0.98	0.91, 1.05
Mean rainfall	0.91	0.88, 0.94	0.73	0.67, 0.79	0.77	0.70, 0.83	0.76	0.70, 0.83
Mean maximum LST^c	0.89	0.86, 0.92	0.67	0.60, 0.74	0.72	0.65, 0.80	0.72	0.64, 0.79
σ ²			1.59	1.20, 2.09	2.37	1.29, 4.74
σ ² ₁ (ecozone I)							1.56	0.78, 2.67
σ ² ₂ (ecozone II)							4.76	2.05, 10.49
σ ² ₃ (ecozone III)							0.10	0.006, 0.40
ρ					1.98	0.70, 3.82
ρ ₁ (ecozone I)							39.44	12.02, 59.35
ρ ₂ (ecozone II)							1.55	0.52, 3.23
ρ ₃ (ecozone III)							27.61	2.30, 57.62
*DIC* ^d	9,974		1,501		1,485		1,479

^aOR Odds ratio; ^bBCI Bayesian credible interval; ^cLST Land surface temperature; ^dDIC Deviance information criterion.

ISSN: 1475-2875