Figure 8

Ratio of annual episodes in a situation with LLIN sustained coverage without attrition or decay to a situation without LLINs, depending on pre-intervention EIR and coverage. Each green line represents the median number of episodes of 10 simulation runs (each with unique random seed) with LLINs distributed to the people (population size = 10,000) at the beginning of year 6, the number of episodes in each intervention simulation run divided by the number of episodes in a simulation run without LLINs (also with unique random seed). The red semi transparent polygons represent the range of the 10 runs. Per panel, there are 14 green lines (and 14 red polygons), each representing a malaria model variant. The first column of panels (a-c) shows results for 60% coverage and the second column (d-f) for 80% coverage. The panel rows show results for pre-intervention EIRs of 16 (a & d), 32 (b & e), and 256 (c & f) ibpapa. Blue lines represent the proportion of people using an LLIN, added to one. Horizontal lines: dashed, ratio = 1; dotted, ratio = 0.