Comparing malaria incidence predicted by the simulation to global malaria estimates from WHO. Quantitative comparison of absolute incidence is problematic given the unknown reporting fraction for malaria by country. (In the figure the simulated data is re-scaled by 0.256). Measurements of malaria climate sensitivity depend on year-to-year variation in incidence. For 2001 and 2002, WHO is missing data for several countries with high endemic malaria burden. The open circle represents WHO data published since the original preparation of this work.