Figure 3

Simulated seasonal transmission dynamics with and without interventions. Baseline model simulation of EIR on a population of 10,000 individuals for two years using 10 random seeds for each of the 14 OpenMalaria model variants with (dark blue shaded area) and without (light blue shaded area) interventions in Rachuonyo South district. The daily EIR is calibrated from monthly EIR values that are smoothed out with a Fourier transform to only include an annual and biannual cycle as described in Chitnis et al. 2012[26]. The shaded areas represent the range of results from the 140 simulations.