Figure 5

Model validation with observed cohort prevalence data. Simulated vs. observed proportion of a cohort of 1,655 individuals in Rachuonyo South District with detectable P. falciparum infection for EIR values derived from a) entomological studies (0.4 infectious bites per person per year, seasonality from neighboring district; and b) serology (1.5 infectious bites per person per year from one primary vector, seasonality from study site weather station). All simulations ran for three years for each of the 14 OpenMalaria model variants. The black squares represent the mean number of patent infections observed in the cohort at each time point. The black-capped bars represent the upper and lower 95% confidence intervals of the observed mean. The shaded area represents the range of results from the 140 simulations. The source of observed data is the MTC cohort study described in the Methods section.