Skip to main content

Table 2 Areas under the curve (AUCs) of ROC curves for various epidemic definitions and alert thresholds, Chabahar District, 21 Mar 2003-19 Mar 2008

From: Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

Areas Under ROC Curves

Years of Baseline data

4 years (excludes test year)

5 years (includes test year)

Minimum Epidemic Duration (Definition)

4 weeks (Primary)

3 weeks (Alternative)

4 weeks (Primary)

3 weeks (Alternative)

Threshold Type (span)

Percentiles (1 week)

0.9481

0.9492

0.9324

0.9321

Percentiles (3 week)

0.9624

0.9634

0.9469

0.9480

Mean+SDs (1 week)

(Cullen alerts of raw counts)

0.9724

0.9702

0.9743

0.9718

Mean+SDs (3 week)

(C-SUM alerts of raw counts)

0.9845

0.9840

0.9634

0.9659

Geometric mean+SDs

(1 week)

(Cullen alerts of log counts)

0.9647

0.9655

0.9607

0.9629

Geometric mean+SDs

(3 week)

(C-SUM alerts of log counts)

0.9768

0.9778

0.9510

0.9541

χ2 for homogeneity (on 5 df's)

67.95

63.25

52.84

58.62

P-value

< 0.0001

< 0.0001

< 0.0001

< 0.0001