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Table 2 Areas under the curve (AUCs) of ROC curves for various epidemic definitions and alert thresholds, Chabahar District, 21 Mar 2003-19 Mar 2008

From: Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

Areas Under ROC Curves
Years of Baseline data 4 years (excludes test year) 5 years (includes test year)
Minimum Epidemic Duration (Definition) 4 weeks (Primary) 3 weeks (Alternative) 4 weeks (Primary) 3 weeks (Alternative)
Threshold Type (span)
Percentiles (1 week) 0.9481 0.9492 0.9324 0.9321
Percentiles (3 week) 0.9624 0.9634 0.9469 0.9480
Mean+SDs (1 week) (Cullen alerts of raw counts) 0.9724 0.9702 0.9743 0.9718
Mean+SDs (3 week) (C-SUM alerts of raw counts) 0.9845 0.9840 0.9634 0.9659
Geometric mean+SDs (1 week) (Cullen alerts of log counts) 0.9647 0.9655 0.9607 0.9629
Geometric mean+SDs (3 week) (C-SUM alerts of log counts) 0.9768 0.9778 0.9510 0.9541
χ2 for homogeneity (on 5 df's) 67.95 63.25 52.84 58.62
P-value < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001 < 0.0001