Figure 6

Summary of clinical cases averted with addition of child-targeted PEV campaign. Left panel: Summary of the average clinical cases averted in an EPI-like rollout of both an RTS,S-like vaccine (50% efficacy, 5-year exponential decay) and a potential future vaccine (90% efficacy). Incidence reductions are compared to ITN-only scenarios for a parameter sweep over annual baseline EIR, An.arabiensis indoor-feeding fraction, and population-wide ITN coverage. The horizontal axis, the monthly under-5 clinical incidence in the two driest months, is a measure of the difficulty to interrupt transmission. The markers indicated by (a) and (b) correspond to the entomological and ITN settings of the subpanels shown on the right. Right panels: Daily clinical incidence of under-5 year-olds with (green) and without (black) ITN protection for the no-vaccine simulations with (a) baseline EIR=100, exclusive indoor-feeding An.arabiensis, 40% ITN coverage and (b) baseline EIR=15, exclusive outdoor-feeding An.arabiensis, 60% ITN coverage. Daily incidence rates are presented as the running average over a one-week sliding window.