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Figure 6 | Malaria Journal

Figure 6

From: Measurement of Plasmodium falciparum transmission intensity using serological cohort data from Indonesian schoolchildren

Figure 6

Theoretical limits for measuring transmission intensity in cohort studies. Measuring the force of infection (FOI) in a cohort study by detecting infection events is subject to the theoretical limitations governing count data: under idealizing assumptions the number of infections in a study is Poisson-distributed with expectation equal to FOI x the number of study subjects x study duration. This introduces uncertainty into FOI estimates. An example: in order to measure a FOI with ca. ± 25% accuracy, on average 50 infections need to happen during a study. At a FOI of 0.1, this can be achieved by following 500 individuals for 1 year, or 250 individuals for 2 years, etc.

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