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Table 13 Prognostic index for severe malaria

From: Prognostic indicators in adults hospitalized with falciparum malaria in Western Thailand

N = 668 / n = 43

Co-efficient

  

MPI A

MPI B

GCS <5

4.318

4

4.5

GCS 5-11

1.543

2

1.5

Parasitaemia >315,000/μL

1.238

1

1

Plasma lactate > 5 mmol/L

2.267

2

2.5

Serum bilirubin > 58 μmol/L1

1.191

1

1

Pigmented parasites >20%

1.673

2

1.5

Treatment with ACT

−1.280

−1

−1.5

AUROCC

0.97

0.97

0.97

Cut off 2

 

3

3

Sensitivity

 

100%

100%

Specificity

 

82%

88%

Cut off 3

 

4

3.5

Sensitivity

 

93%

95%

Specificity

 

92%

91%

  1. MPI A = co-efficients rounded to the nearest integer with cut offs of 3.
  2. MPI B = co-efficients rounded to the nearest 0.5 with cut offs of 3.
  3. 1 if not available; creatinine >132 μmol/L can be used instead.
  4. and cut off of 3 would give sensitivity and specificity of 98%.
  5. and 82% for MPI A and 96% and 88% for MPI B.
  6. 2 which gives the highest specificity for 100% sensitivity.
  7. 3 which gives the “optimal” sensitivity and specificity.
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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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