Figure 2

Malaria-model ensemble simulation outputs. Monthly P. falciparum malaria incidence observed in Kericho over the period spanning January, 1979 to October, 2004 (x-axes) versus the 50% percentile of the distributions of monthly P. falciparum malaria prevalence (y-axes) simulated by the MAC (upper left panel), AM (upper right), WCT (lower left), and ABP (lower right) models, for the actual climatic conditions, for the period spanning January, 1979 to December, 2009, and for 1-, 1-, 2-, and 0-month time lags, respectively. Red and blue solid lines represent the adjusted linear trends (see R²-values on each panel) for each model and for the four-malaria-model ensemble (MME), respectively. Dashed black line in the upper-right panel depicts the adjusted linear trend for the MME when non-linear changes in the mean duration of host’s infectivity to vectors are considered.