Towards malaria elimination in Mpumalanga, South Africa: a population-level mathematical modelling approach

Malaria Journal

Table 1 Parameter table

Parameter	Description	Value	Source
N	Population size	4 ×10⁶	[20]
μ	Mortality Rate	$\frac{105}{10000}$	[21]
δ	Natural recovery period	26 weeks	[22–24]
σ ₁	Period between liver stage and blood stage	7 days (5-10)	[25–27]
σ ₂	Period between blood stage and onset of gametocytemia	1 week	[23, 28]
r	AL elimination half-life	6 days (3-6)	[29]
τ	Time to seek treatment	1/2 week	Expert opinion
p	Proportion that receive treatment	0.95	[30, 31]
s e a s _l	Seasonal forcing function for locally sourced cases	Derived from data	[12]
s e a s _f	Seasonal forcing function for imported cases	Derived from data	[12]
β _l	Annual number of mosquito bites per person x proportion of bites testing positive for sporozoites	39.170 (38.894, 39.448)	Estimated from model fitting process
λ _f	Force of imported infections	0.002163 (0.002124, 0.002202)	Estimated from model fitting process
λ _l	Force of locally sourced infections	$(1 - vc [t]) β_{l} \times \frac{I_{l, u} + I_{l, tr} + I_{f, u} + I_{f, tr}}{N}$
v c[t]	v c c o v×v c e f f
vccov	Vector Control Coverage	0.22-0.90	Derived from data
vceff	Effectiveness of vector control	0.9060 (0.8884, 0.9212)	Estimated from model fitting process

Table providing the values, descriptions and sources of the parameters driving the mathematical model of transmission.

ISSN: 1475-2875