|
N
|
Population size
|
4 ×106
|
[20]
|
|
μ
|
Mortality Rate
|
|
[21]
|
|
δ
|
Natural recovery period
|
26 weeks
|
[22–24]
|
|
σ
1
|
Period between liver stage and blood stage
|
7 days (5-10)
|
[25–27]
|
|
σ
2
|
Period between blood stage and onset of gametocytemia
|
1 week
|
[23, 28]
|
|
r
|
AL elimination half-life
|
6 days (3-6)
|
[29]
|
|
τ
|
Time to seek treatment
|
1/2 week
|
Expert opinion
|
|
p
|
Proportion that receive treatment
|
0.95
|
[30, 31]
|
|
s
e
a
s
l
|
Seasonal forcing function for locally sourced cases
|
Derived from data
|
[12]
|
|
s
e
a
s
f
|
Seasonal forcing function for imported cases
|
Derived from data
|
[12]
|
|
β
l
|
Annual number of mosquito bites per person x proportion of bites testing positive for sporozoites
|
39.170 (38.894, 39.448)
|
Estimated from model fitting process
|
|
λ
f
|
Force of imported infections
|
0.002163 (0.002124, 0.002202)
|
Estimated from model fitting process
|
|
λ
l
|
Force of locally sourced infections
|
| |
|
v c[t]
|
v c c o v×v c e f f
| | |
|
vccov
|
Vector Control Coverage
|
0.22-0.90
|
Derived from data
|
|
vceff
|
Effectiveness of vector control
|
0.9060 (0.8884, 0.9212)
|
Estimated from model fitting process
|
