Figure 10

Interannual skill time series of System-4 malaria forecasts in September, October and November for the North-western region of India. Probability of a malaria “event” occurring in the NW box of the System-4 malaria forecast seasonal time series (see Figure 1b) averaging months three to five from a July start date against a-c) ERAI (1981–2010) temperature and precipitation, d-f) IMD (1981–2002) gridded temperature and precipitation observations and g-i) TRMM precipitation and ERAI temperature reanalysis (TRMM-ERAI, 1998–2010). The three events considered are high (above the upper tercile), above average (above the median) and low (below the lower tercile) malaria occurrence. See the text in the “Malaria transmission” section of the results for interpretation.