Figure 6

Annual average malaria prevalence for 2010 only (%). Output is shown from the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) for the year 2010 driven by a) ERAI, b) TRMM precipitation and ERAI temperature (TRMM-ERAI) and c) the System-4 forecast monthly time series with a three month lead time (see Figure 1a). Note that the IMD time series extends only to 2002 and is therefore absent in this comparison. Two observationally-derived Indian malaria estimates are also provided for qualitative Tier 3 comparison with the disease model: d) the prevalence of P. falciparum from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP 2010) [59] and e) a pre-intervention (circa 1900) malaria distribution [60, 61]. The two boxes enclose the regions of interest in Northwest and Northeast India.