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Table 8 Time series analysis (ARIMA) of cases and deaths, against malaria control interventions

From: A steep decline of malaria morbidity and mortality trends in Eritrea between 2000 and 2004: the effect of combination of control methods

Univariate analysis

  

Effect on malaria morbidity (number of cases)

  
 

β coefficient

Probability

ITNs (number distributed)

-0.125

0.005

Number of ITNs retreated

-0.016

0.02

IRS (kg of DDT & Malathion)

-2.352

0.05

Malathion (kg)

-3.270

0.05

CHAs trained (number)

-55.483

0.6

Rainfall

275.95

0.4

Population protected

-0.728

0.11

Effect on case fatality (number of deaths)

  
 

β coefficient

Probability

IRS (kg of DDT & Malathion)

-0.002

0.08

Health workers trained

0.226

0.03

Abate (litres)

-0.468

0.3

Multivariate

Effect on malaria morbidity (number of cases)

 

β coefficient

Probability

ITNs

-0.1663

0.13

IRS

0.832

0.45

Case fatality

 

β coefficient

Probability

ITNs

-0.00011

0.6

IRS

0.0006

0.9