Figure 2

Monthly parasite and blood smear examination incidence patterns. Monthly parasite incidence patterns of P. falciparum and P. vivax malaria combined per 1000 population (thick red line) and 12 month moving average (thin red line), blood smears examined per 1000 population (thick black line) and 12 month moving average (thin black line), and proportion of blood smears positive for malaria (thick blue line) and 12 month moving average (thin blue line) from January 1995 to December 2005 in Sri Lanka. Ninety-five % confidence areas are indicated for one-month ahead prediction of time series for January – December 2005, using fixed trends found in the period April 2000 – December 2004 (in grey).