Figure 11

Simulation results for the assumed basescenarios. (A) IFM denotes the monthly P. falciparum malaria incidence (gray bars) observed in Nuqui during the period November 1st 1997-December 31st 2003 (2,252-day simulation period). (B) IFEP denotes the P. falciparum malaria incidence (gray bars) observed per EP in El Bagre during the period January 3rd 1994 – December 28th 2002 (3,282-day simulation period). Variables Prev represent the daily malaria prevalence rates (solid lines) obtained by simulation using daily temperatures and the 'Vectorial Capacity' infectious disease model for constant vector densities.