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Figure 12 | Malaria Journal

Figure 12

From: Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System

Figure 12

Time series of model results for final simulation scenario. (A) IFM denotes the monthly P. falciparum malaria incidence (black solid line) observed in Nuqui during the period November 1st, 1997-December 31st, 2003 (2,252-day simulation period). Variable M_Prev denotes the simulated monthly malaria prevalence (gray solid line). (B) Values of the Vectorial Capacity for entomological variables proposed in the literature (see blue solid line 1) and using field-based approximations and/or estimated values under controlled laboratory conditions (black solid line 2). (C) IFEP denotes the P. falciparum malaria incidence (black solid line) observed per EP in El Bagre during the period January 3rd, 1994 – December 28th, 2002 (3,282-day simulation period). Variable Prev denotes the malaria prevalence rate (gray solid line 1) obtained for each EP during the corresponding simulation period. Time series Prev VC Delayed (blue solid line 2) denotes the simulation results for a delayed Vectorial Capacity.

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