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Table 2 Expected malaria incidence by forecasting model and observed monthly malaria notification rates per 100 inhabitants of Karuzi, Burundi, in the derivation period 1997–2001.

From: Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

Month Expected Observed Month Expected Observed
Jan 1997 --- 1.7 Jul 8.5 6.9
Feb 1.4 1.6 Aug 6.5 4.4
Mar 3.2 1.7 Sep 5.5 5.7
Apr 1.7 2.2 Oct 5.5 7.6
May 1.9 2.3 Nov 8 8.9
Jun 3.3 3.8 Dec 7.9 8.1
Jul 3.6 4.9 Jan 2000 8.2 7.9
Aug 4.9 2.1 Feb 7.8 6.5
Sep 1.7 1.9 Mar 7.2 4.2
Oct 3.5 2.3 Apr 4 3.5
Nov 1.9 2.4 May 3.4 6.5
Dec 3.8 2.8 Jun 5.2 10.4
Jan 1998 2.6 2.7 Jul 9.3 6.8
Feb 2.2 4.1 Aug 6.5 5.6
Mar 5 4.1 Sep 5.5 5.4
Apr 3.5 4 Oct 4.3 9.5
May 4.2 2.3 Nov 7.7 41.6
Jun 1.8 2.7 Dec 34.5 42.2
Jul 3.3 2.4 Jan 2001 34.4 35.3
Aug 2.9 2.1 Feb 29.4 24.4
Sep 2.7 2.8 Mar 21.4 25.9
Oct 3.9 3.4 Apr 22.4 13.2
Nov 3 4.3 May 12.2 11.4
Dec 4.3 4.2 Jun 9.8 7.7
Jan 1999 5.3 4.5 Jul 7.2 6.2
Feb 4.1 3.8 Aug 6.6 6
Mar 5 4.1 Sep 5.5 4.3
Apr 3.6 2.2 Oct 5.2 5
May 2.9 5.6 Nov 5.9 5.9
Jun 5.5 9.4 Dec 4.8 6