Table 2 Expected malaria incidence by forecasting model and observed monthly malaria notification rates per 100 inhabitants of Karuzi, Burundi, in the derivation period 1997–2001.

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1.7

8.5

6.9

1.4

1.6

6.5

4.4

3.2

1.7

5.5

5.7

1.7

2.2

5.5

7.6

1.9

2.3

8

8.9

3.3

3.8

7.9

8.1

3.6

4.9

8.2

7.9

4.9

2.1

7.8

6.5

1.7

1.9

7.2

4.2

3.5

2.3

4

3.5

1.9

2.4

3.4

6.5

3.8

2.8

5.2

10.4

2.6

2.7

9.3

6.8

2.2

4.1

6.5

5.6

5

4.1

5.5

5.4

3.5

4

4.3

9.5

4.2

2.3

7.7

41.6

1.8

2.7

34.5

42.2

3.3

2.4

34.4

35.3

2.9

2.1

29.4

24.4

2.7

2.8

21.4

25.9

3.9

3.4

22.4

13.2

3

4.3

12.2

11.4

4.3

4.2

9.8

7.7

5.3

4.5

7.2

6.2

4.1

3.8

6.6

6

5

4.1

5.5

4.3

3.6

2.2

5.2

5

2.9

5.6

5.9

5.9

5.5

9.4

4.8

6