Figure 3

Rainfall per month for the period January 1999 to March 2007 at three sites on the Kenyan coast. The top row is Kilifi, the middle row Kwale and the bottom Malindi. The graphs in the left column show the monthly rainfall in mm as dashed lines. The yellow solid line is a 13-point moving average applied to filter seasonal variation and highlight the long-term movements in the data. Trends corrected for seasonality are shown in black. The rainfall expressed as anomalies relative to 1999–2007 monthly mean for each site are shown in the middle column. The 13-point moving average is again also shown. The intercept was chosen (from the potential 11) based on the maximal correlation with the 13-point m.a.