Figure 2

Regime Shift for falciparum and vivax malaria: A falciparum malaria rate, the dashed line corresponds to the breakpoint, January 1992, estimated using the F statistic, and the solid lines at the bottom of the graph to the confidence intervals (June 1989, June 1994), the thick-black solid line is the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko adaptive filter implemented with a half window size, q, of 36 months, the breakpoint corresponds to August 1993, the blue line corresponds to the breakpoint obtained using the CUSUM (January 1992).B &C seasonal falciparum malaria rate before and after breakpoint (January 1992) D vivax malaria rate, the dashed line corresponds to the breakpoint, May 1991, estimated using the F statistic, and the solid lines at the bottom of the graph to the confidence intervals (June 1989, November 1992), the black solid line is the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko adaptive filter implemented with a half window size, q, of 36 months, the breakpoint corresponds to February 1994, the blue line corresponds to the breakpoint obtained using the CUSUM (January 1992) E &F seasonal vivax malaria rate before and after breakpoint. For the F statistics the 30% percent of the data belonging to the extremes (15% each) was left out. For the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko adaptive filter q was set to 36, in order to avoid the misidentification of cycles shorter than 6 years.