Species

Parameter

Before

After

% Reduction

P


P.falciparum

$\widehat{\mu}$

11.56 ± 1.02

3.90 ± 1.15

66.26

B/A


${\widehat{\alpha}}_{1}$

1.43 ± 0.42

0.72 ± 0.35

48.59

B/A


${\widehat{\alpha}}_{2}$

1.36 ± 0.44

0.94 ± 0.33

30.88

B/A


${\widehat{\sigma}}_{\epsilon}^{2}$

5.76

3.84

33.31



P.vivax

$\widehat{\mu}$

4.83 ± 0.62

2.33 ± 0.43

51.76

B/A


${\widehat{\alpha}}_{1}$

0.55 ± 0.18

0.11 ± 0.16

80.00

B


${\widehat{\sigma}}_{\epsilon}^{2}$

1.17

0.53

54.31



 . % Reduction is defined as 1 (parameter value before breakpoint/parameter value after breakpoint). For P. falciparum the final model was:
 y_{
t
}= μ + φ_{1}(y_{t1} μ) + φ_{12}(y_{t12} μ) + α_{1}T_{t3}+ α_{2}T_{t12}+ ε_{
t
}and for P.vivax:
 y_{
t
}= μ + φ_{1}(y_{t1} μ) + φ_{12}(y_{t12} μ) + α_{1}T_{t10}+ ε_{
t
}Model selection process and all parameter values can be seen in Additional file 6. Column P (<0.05) indicates the significance of any parameter B (before breakpoint)/A(after breakpoint)