Table 2 Sensitivity analysis variables and outcomes
Variable | Baseline value | Revised values in sensitivity analysis | Justification | Impact on cost per child per year (Baseline: US$1.88) | Impact on Cost effectiveness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cost per case of anaemia averted (Baseline: US$ 29.84) | Cost per case of parasitaemia averted (Baseline: US$ 5.36) | |||||
SP Price | US$ 0.08 per dose | 200% | Drug price and brand are liable to change over time and across settings | US$ 1.61 US$ 2.30 | US$ 25.56 US$ 36.51 | US$ 4.59 US$ 6.55 |
AQ Price | US$ 0.12 per dose | 50% 200% | As above | US$ 1.55 US$ 2.54 | US$ 24.60 US$ 40.32 | US$ 4.2 US$ 7.24 |
Drug Wastage | 10% | 0% 20% | Variations in expert opinion & literature | US$ 1.80 US$ 1.95 | US$ 28.57 US$ 30.95 | US$ 5.13 US$ 5.56 |
Exchange rate | US$ 1= Kes 67.81 | US$ 1 = Kes 74.5 US$ 1 = Kes 67.1 | Rate over 2006, and highest and lowest 2006 rates | US$ 1.78 US$ 2.13 | US$ 28.25 US$ 33.81 | US$ 5.07 US$ 6.07 |
Discount rate | 5% | 3% – 7% | 5% is standard practice, with 3–7% used occasionally | Negligible change | Negligible change | Negligible change |
Change in wages | 2006 | + 20% | Salaries levels liable to change. 20% is a realistic change in next few years | US$ 1.96 | US$ 31.11 | US$ 5.58 |
Effectiveness: reduction in % anaemia | 50% | 10% 30% | Effectiveness may vary in different settings and when implemented outside of an efficacy trial | Not applicable | US$ 149.21 US$ 49.74 | Not applicable |
Effectiveness: reduction in % parasitaemia | 88% | 40% 60% | As above | Not applicable | Not applicable | US$ 11.84 US$ 7.89 |
Baseline % anaemia in Reduction in % parasitaemia | 12.6% | 30% 50% | Background nutritional levels vary between settings | Not applicable | US$ 12.53 US$ 7.52 | Not applicable |
Frequency of delivery | Three times a year | Twice a year | Yearly distribution as in efficacy trial versus seasonal distribution | US$ 1.42 | Not applicable | Not applicable |
Drug Choice | SP/AQ | SP alone DP | Current drug regime versus alternative drug regime currently under investigation | US$ 1.19. US$ 4.50 | Not applicable | Not applicable |