Models for short term malaria prediction in Sri Lanka

Malaria Journal

Table 2 Mean absolute relative error of out of series prediction at forecasting horizons of 1 to 4 months ahead for districts in Sri Lanka for Holt Winters models.

District	Horizon 1		Horizon 2		Horizon 3		Horizon 4
Model	H	HW	H	HW	H	HW	H	HW
Ampara	0.43	0.39	0.65	0.52	0.83	0.63	0.86	0.67
Anuradhapura	0.34	*0.22*	0.66	*0.35*	0.99	*0.45*	1.22	0.53
Badulla	0.46	0.54	0.67	0.75	0.87	0.95	0.84	0.96
Batticaloa	0.41	0.41	0.65	0.65	0.82	0.82	0.97	0.97
Colombo	*0.35*	0.37	0.39	0.43	0.44	0.48	*0.46*	0.53
Galle	0.50	0.61	0.59	0.74	0.67	0.83	0.79	0.96
Gampaha	0.43	0.43	0.59	0.59	0.70	0.70	0.78	0.78
Hambantota	0.36	0.36	0.57	0.56	0.76	0.73	0.88	0.87
Jaffna	0.43	0.46	0.62	0.63	0.79	0.85	0.85	0.97
Kalutara	0.55	0.61	0.72	0.80	0.81	0.91	0.88	0.97
Kandy	0.37	0.37	0.50	0.50	0.56	0.57	0.57	0.57
Kegalle	0.39	0.40	0.63	0.62	0.83	0.82	0.94	0.95
Kilinochchi	0.58	0.60	1.08	1.12	2.50	2.26	2.70	2.17
Kurunegala	0.34	0.26	0.61	0.43	0.76	0.57	0.85	0.70
Mannar	1.41	1.57	1.74	1.98	1.61	2.63	1.78	2.28
Matale	0.45	0.41	0.73	0.63	0.96	0.74	1.13	0.81
Matara	0.37	0.35	0.42	0.40	0.49	0.48	0.52	0.52
Moneragala	0.31	0.31	0.42	0.41	0.54	0.52	0.62	0.63
Mullaitivu	1.08	1.19	1.73	1.70	2.21	2.54	2.73	*2.38*
Nuwara Eliya	0.49	0.50	0.61	0.60	0.69	0.69	0.69	0.69
Polonnaruwa	0.37	0.37	0.60	0.60	0.76	0.76	0.82	0.82
Puttalam	0.42	0.37	0.67	0.49	0.88	0.64	1.00	0.76
Ratnapura	0.36	0.31	0.55	0.47	0.64	0.56	0.74	0.66
Trincomalee	0.53	0.56	0.82	*0.75*	1.15	*0.97*	1.35	*1.07*
Vavuniya	1.89	2.02	2.82	3.93	2.45	14.21	2.19	4.11

H = Holt's two parameter exponential smoothing; HW = Holt-Winters three parameter exponential smoothing (including seasonality). Values in bold italic represent a better mare as compared to the best (S)ARIMA model (without rainfall).

ISSN: 1475-2875