Figure 3

Estimated ancestral states of host utilization based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo evolutionary modelling that used 1000 phylogenetic hypotheses. Circles summarize posterior densities of the reconstructed ancestral state from the Markov chain of 101,000,000 independent evolutionary models. Pie charts present probabilities of hosts being hominoid, cercopithecid or platyrrhine primate, respectively. a): Ancestral state estimations, when no restrictions were made, and each node was allowed to take any of the tree states. b): Estimations, when information on fossil records (hominoids were unlikely to be present for parasites to infect around the origin of primate malarias) was used, and the two deepest nodes (marked with asterisk) were forced to have zero probability for hominoid host use. Results obtained when using the Bayesian sample of phylogenetic trees of parasites summarized on Figure 1. Triangles show branches where host switch across large phylogenetic distances should have occurred.