Figure 1

Estimated vs. Observed Change in Malaria Incidence. Estimated versus observed relative change in the incidence of malaria (incidence of malaria in the current time interval/incidence of malaria in the prior time interval) over two, six, and 12 month intervals between January 2005 and December 2008. Y-axis expressed in terms of the incidence rate ratio (i.e. 2 equals a 2-fold increase in the incidence of malaria and 0.5 equals a 2-fold decrease in the incidence of malaria) and X-axis expressed in terms of calendar time.