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Table 5 Output from Monte Carlo simulation using Berkeley Madonna Model*

From: Estimating the burden of malaria in pregnancy: a case study from rural Madhya Pradesh, India

 

MiP

Spontaneous Abortions

Stillbirths

Maternal Deaths

Median

220,000

76,000

19,800

1,000

Lower quartile

136,000

44,600

12,200

650

Minimum

45,600

8,400

2,900

150

Maximum

506,000

252,000

69,000

3,500

Upper Quartile

305,000

117,000

30,600

1,600

  1. *Berkeley Madonna Input
  2. Total rural population (TPop) = 74481000–15967145
  3. Crude birth rate (CBR) = random (0.0307, 0.04376)
  4. Live Births (B) = TPop*CBR
  5. y = proportion of pregnancies ending in spontaneous abortion (SA) + proportion of pregnancies ending in stillbirth (SB)
  6. Total pregnancies (TP) = B/(1-y)
  7. MiP = TP*PrevMiP
  8. MiPSB = MiP*MiPSBr
  9. MiPSA = MiP*MiPSAr
  10. SevereMiP = 0.05*MiP
  11. MiPMM = SevereMiP*MiPcase fatality rate
  12. PrevMiP = random (0.02, 0.14)
  13. MiPSAr = random (0.15, 0.6)
  14. MiPSBr = random (.04, 0.16)
  15. MiPMMr = random (0.042, 0.168)
  16. SB = random (0.02, 0.08)
  17. SA = random (0.075, 0.30)