Table 1 Model Parameter Values
No. | Disease Parameter | Estimate | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
P1 | Malaria prevalence | 43.1% | Uzochukwu 2008 [42] |
P2 | Febrile outpatients aged ≥ 5 years |  |  |
P3 | Proportion of NMFI cases that were bacterial | 10% | Shillcutt et al. 2008 |
P4 | Probability that a NMFI received an antibiotic | 100% | Uzochukwu 2008 |
P5 | RDT sensitivity | 90% | Uzochukwu 2008, Beadle et. al, 1994, Craig et al., 2002, Bell et. al. 2005 |
P6 | Presumptive treatment sensitivity | 100% | Uzochukwu. 2008 |
P7 | Microscopy sensitivity | 82% | Uzochukwu. 2008, Shillcutt et. al. 2008, Reyburn et al., 2004 |
P8 | RDT specificity | 91% | Uzochukwu. 2008, Mueller et al., 2007 Bell et al. 2005, WHO, 2000 |
P9 | Presumptive treatment specificity | 0% | Uzochukwu. 2008 |
P10 | Microscopy specificity | 87% | Uzochukwu. 2008 |
P11 | Probability of adherence -- ACT | 80% | Uzochukwu. 2008, Depoortere et al., 2004, Fogg et al., 2004 |
P12 | Probability of adherence amoxicillin | 80% | Assumption |
P13 | ACT efficacy (for malaria) | 95% | Uzochukwu. 2008. Shillcutt et. al., 2008, Lefevre et. al., 2001 |
No | Disease Parameter | Estimate | Source |
P14 | Amoxicillin efficacy (for malaria) | 0% | Assumption |
P15 | ACT efficacy (for bacterial infection) | 0% | Assumption |
P16 | Amoxicillin efficacy (for bacterial infection) | 75% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P17 | ACT efficacy (for viral infection) | 0% | Assumption |
P18 | Amoxicillin efficacy (for viral infection) | 0% | Assumption |
| Â | Treatment seeking behaviour | Â | Â |
P19 | Outpatient visit at a health centre | 1-P20 | Shillcutt et.al., 2008 |
P20 | Outpatient visit took place in a hospital | 32% | Shillcutt et.al., 2008 |
P21 | Patient with severe illness went to hospital for inpatient care after treatment failure | 48% | Shillcutt et. al., 2008, McCombie, 1996 |
P22 | Patient with uncomplicated illness returned to clinic for outpatient care after treatment failure | 48% | Shillcutt et.al., 2008 |
P23 | Malaria not effectively treated led to severe disease (age ≥ 5) | 1% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P24 | Malaria not effectively treated led to severe disease (age <5) | 7.50% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P25 | Bacterial illness not effectively treated led to severe disease (age ≥ 5) | 15% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P26 | Bacterial illness not effectively treated led to severe disease (age<5) | 30% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P27 | Viral illness not effectively treated led to severe disease (age ≥ 5) | 0% | Assumption |
P28 | Viral illness not effectively treated led to severe disease (age<5) | 0% | Assumption |
P29 | Severe malaria led to neurological sequelae (age ≥ 5) | 1.50% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P30 | Severe malaria led to neurological sequelae (age<5) | 3.50% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P31 | Severe bacterial infection led to neurological sequelae (age ≥ 5) | 3.80% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P32 | Severe bacterial infection led to neurological sequelae (age<5) | 2% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P33 | Inpatient with severe malaria attending an inpatient facility died (all ages) | 10% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P34 | Inpatient with severe bacterial illness attending an inpatient facility died (all ages) | 15% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P35 | Patient with severe malaria that did not return for formal care would die (all ages) | 25% | Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
P36 | Patient with severe bacterial illness that did not return for formal care would die (all ages) | P35 | Assumption |