Observed parasitaemia and gametocytaemia incidences versus predicted values. X-axis: time (10 days). Y-axis: incidences. The red and orange lines represent the observed incidences of respectively P. falciparum parasitaemia (PF) and gametocytaemia (GF), after removing the trend of the time series. The blue lines (dark and light blue) represent the predicted values of respectively parasitaemia (IO) and gametocytaemia (GO) incidences, using observed NDVI. The green lines (dark and light green) represent the predicted values of respectively parasitaemia (I) and gametocytaemia (G) incidences, using HMM model of NDVI.