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Figure 2 | Malaria Journal

Figure 2

From: Endemicity response timelines for Plasmodium falciparum elimination

Figure 2

A diagram of the queuing models, which extend the Ross-Macdonald model by tracking changes in the MOI. The fraction of the whole population with MOI of m, denoted x m , changes when new infections occur or when existing infections clear, and in any short interval of time, one individual's MOI increments or decrements by one [18]. The rate that new infections arise may depend on MOI, denoted h m . The rate of loss may depend on MOI, denoted ρ m , and ρ1 = r denotes the rate a simple infection is lost. Changes in the fraction of the population that is uninfected are described by an equation: = -h0x0 + rx1. Changes in the fraction of people who are already infected with a given MOI are described by a set of equations: = -h m x m + hm-1xm-1- ρ m x m + ρm+1xm+1. These equations describe a family of queuing models: each queuing model makes different assumptions about infection and clearance. In "infinite strain" models, h m = h, and in "finite strain" models where M denotes the maximum number of types, h m = h(1-m/M). Models considered parasite types that cleared independently, or with competition or facilitation. For independent clearance, individual types were unaffected by concurrent infection with other parasite types, so ρ m = rm. Competition and facilitation were modelled by letting ρ m = rmσ, where σ >1 described competition and σ <1 implies facilitation. Compared with independent clearance, per-strain clearance rates are faster with competition (i.e. ρ m > rm), and slower with facilitation (i.e. ρ m <rm). Clearance rates per person increase with MOI in all the models; if no new infections occurred, the expected waiting time to lose all the existing infections would be the sum of times to progressively decrement MOI: 1/r+1/ρ2+1/ρ3+...+1/ρ m .

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