Figure 3

a) The decline in Pf PR for six different models with completely interrupted transmission: the Ross-Macdonald model (black), infinite strains, homogeneous biting, and independent clearance (red), two strains, homogeneous biting and independent clearance (blue), infinite strains, homogeneous biting and competition (purple), four strains with homogeneous biting and facilitation (orange), and senescing infections (green). b)The daily decay rates for several models have been plotted as a function of declining Pf PR, which is plotted on the vertical axis. The decay rate is the log of the PR ratio on consecutive days. Diamonds along these trajectories are plotted one year apart. The models have the same colors as in the panel above: the Ross-Macdonald model (black), infinite strains, homogeneous biting and independent clearance (red), and two strains, homogeneous biting and independent clearance (blue). The trajectories have also been plotted for completely interrupted transmission as above and for two larger values of R _C (0.5, and 0.75), which reach different asymptotic decay rates. c)The same graph has been re-plotted on a logarithmic scale for Pf PR to show that the decay rates remain constant at r(R _C -1) after Pf PR is below approximately 1%. d)The relationship between baseline Pf PR and the predicted MOI for the model with heterogeneous biting at various levels: α = 2, dotted; α = 3, dashed; α = 4.2, solid; α = 6, dash-dot; and homogeneous biting, red. The more aggregated the biting, the higher the average MOI for the same Pf PR. e)The Pf PR over time for the same models as panel dand completely interrupted transmission starting from a baseline Pf PR of 70%, and compared with the Ross-Macdonald model (black). f)The decline in Pf PR for a model with infinite strains, homogeneous biting, and independent clearance, but with different values of R _C (solid, R _C = 0; dashed, R _C = 0.5; and dotted, R _C = 0.75).