Figure 4

a) Using a stochastic model, Pf PR was simulated over time starting from 1% and following through to elimination (defined as when no one remains infected) in a population of 100,000 people using the Ross-Macdonald model for R _C = 0 (red), R _C = 0.5 (blue), and R _C = 0.75 (green). The solid line shows the median Pf PR over time from the ensemble, the dashed lines show the 5^th and 95^th quantiles, and the solid grey lines (sometimes covered by the median Pf PR) show the same results for the deterministic models. b)The same plots for ensembles of stochastic simulations using Gamma distributed infectious periods (n = 4), for which infections effectively "senesce". The grey line (under the solid blue line) shows the Ross-Macdonald model for completely interrupted transmission. c, d)For the same ensemble of 500 simulations corresponding to the panels above, these violin plots show a kernel density plot for the distribution of extinction times, in years. The white dots show the median time to extinction, the thick black lines show the inter-quartile range. In the left-hand panel, the yellow dots show the predicted values from Equation 6, which are fairly close to the average waiting time to reach 1/H from the ensemble of simulations.