Figure 5

The parasite rate in two parts of Taveta [14]: the forest (top) and the village (bottom). The data track the Pf PR in 2–10 year olds starting from 1954 and extending through 1959 – the grey shows the binomial confidence intervals by the exact test. Spraying started late in 1955 with effects that extended through 1959 (shown in pink). The blue line shows the Ross-Macdonald model with R _C = 0 that was used for planning during the GMEP, the purple line shows the Ross-Macdonald model with R _C = 0.7, the orange and red line shows the infinite queuing model with heterogeneous biting (α = 3) and R _C = 0 (orange) and with R _C = 0.7 (red).