Endemicity response timelines for Plasmodium falciparum elimination

Malaria Journal

Table 2 The expected waiting time (in years) to elimination starting from Pf PR = 1%.

	Population size
Basic reproductive number under control (R_C)	H = 10³	H = 10⁴	H = 10⁵	H = 10⁶
0.00	2.5	3.8	5.0	6.3
0.05	2.7	4.0	5.3	6.6
0.10	2.8	4.2	5.6	7.0
0.15	3.0	4.5	5.9	7.4
0.20	3.2	4.7	6.3	7.9
0.25	3.4	5.0	6.7	8.4
0.30	3.6	5.4	7.2	9.0
0.35	3.9	5.8	7.8	9.7
0.40	4.2	6.3	8.4	10.5
0.45	4.6	6.9	9.2	11.5
0.50	5.0	7.6	10.1	12.6
0.55	5.6	8.4	11.2	14.0
0.60	6.3	9.5	12.6	15.8
0.65	7.2	10.8	14.4	18.0
0.70	8.4	12.6	16.8	21.0
0.75	10.1	15.1	20.2	25.2
0.80	12.6	18.9	25.2	31.5
0.85	16.8	25.2	33.6	42.1
0.90	25.2	37.9	50.5	63.1

The columns represent waiting times for different human population sizes ranging in size from one thousand to one million. The rows show the waiting times for R_Cvalues from zero up to 0.9. These values were computed using Eqn. 6, which agrees with the median time to elimination for the simulations when R_C= 0.5, but when R_C= 0.75, the median extinction times were slightly shorter (Figure 2).

ISSN: 1475-2875