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Table 1 Stepwise regression coefficients and p-value (in italic) for 23 provinces.

From: Towards malaria risk prediction in Afghanistan using remote sensing

Province

Mos. of Data

Trend

Sine

Cosine

ARt-1

Other Selected Variables

Est. Coeff. (p-value)

Fit R2

Pred. R2

Fit RMSE

Pred. RMSE

Badakhshan

38

233.86 (0.013)

586.779 (0.2066)

768.54 (0.044)

-0.289 (0.099)

Tt

56.453 (0.0088)

0.83

0.74

249.31

521.30

      

NDVIt-1

6832.8 (0.0375)

    

Baghlan

33

 

74.1832 (0.3396)

-131.4 (8E-04)

0.591 (0.001)

NDVIt-3

1987.3 (0.0279)

0.73

0.30

111.68

157.59

Balkh

39

95.029 (0.004)

-24.825 (0.3368)

49.655 (0.037)

0.261 (0.166)

  

0.71

0.04

82.58

157.15

Bamyan

36

 

215.355 (0.0002)

170.47 (0.002)

0.442 (0.003)

Tt

8.8078 (0.0007)

0.72

0.31

36.67

98.30

      

NDVIt-1

901.67 (0.0011)

    

Farah

32

-23.88 (0.042)

-15.517 (0.202)

-11.69 (0.28)

0.375 (0.045)

Pt-3

0.7921 (0.018)

0.73

0.72

25.89

24.56

Faryab

38

144.49 (0.027)

-244.84 (0.001)

-223.7 (0.003)

0.359 (0.036)

NDVIt-3

-2003.7 (0.0094)

0.79

0.03

148.07

453.55

Ghazni

34

 

114.143 (0.085)

-236.1 (1E-04)

0.077 (0.557)

ARt-3

0.884 (1E-06)

0.80

0.95

67.05

148.21

      

Tt-3

9.285 (0.008)

    

Ghor

33

 

-81.766 (0.0008)

-57.95 (0.001)

0.111 (0.597)

NDVIt

-649.3 (0.008)

0.77

0.67

30.00

110.12

Hirat

41

 

287.797 (0.0675)

21.191 (0.84)

0.62 (6E-08)

Tt-1

16.72 (0.0495)

0.88

0.95

142.04

114.05

      

NDVIt-3

5785.3 (0.0045)

    

Jawzjan

28

 

-20.164 (0.6149)

-115.9 (0.025)

0.121 (0.654)

ARt-2

1.179 (0.015)

0.64

0.18

110.03

296.63

Kabul

33

114.95 (0.004)

79.3475 (0.2133)

-141 (0.002)

0.368 (0.066)

Tt-3

7.22 (0.036)

0.86

0.74

52.59

177.14

Kandahar

41

 

-61.739 (0.0246)

-50.58 (0.119)

0.838 (2E-13)

NDVIt-3

3377.7 (0.0153)

0.89

0.003

96.69

182.35

Khost

29

52.91 (0.01)

-121.83 (2E-05)

31.113 (0.133)

-0.108 (0.555)

ARt-3

-0.485 (0.002)

0.85

0.85

32.73

66.68

Kunar

20

 

-591.44 (0.0929)

-273.9 (0.244)

0.685 (1E-03)

  

0.87

0.07

486.76

1227.8

Laghman

21

546.22 (0.014)

-336.92 (0.0138)

-227.3 (0.01)

-0.431 (0.16)

  

0.64

0.03

153.47

527.21

Nangarhar

17

 

-37.264 (0.7778)

-226.9 (0.03)

0.68 (0.037)

ARt-3

0.692 (0.04)

0.86

0.02

101.51

892.51

Paktika

31

80.561 (2E-04)

95.2655 (0.0059)

-9.201 (0.431)

0.912 (2E-06)

ARt-3

-0.443 (0.005)

0.94

0.17

24.42

314.76

      

Tt-2

5.677 (0.005)

    
      

NDVIt-2

1421.04 (0.0714)

    

Paktya

28

 

-100.69 (0.0078)

-42.4 (0.047)

0.28 (0.215)

  

0.76

0.74

55.24

115.36

Samangan

36

 

-2.1022 (0.9324)

-30.82 (0.141)

0.656 (3E-04)

  

0.53

0.01

71.57

39.52

Sari Pul

27

 

-26.792 (0.2226)

28.848 (0.267)

1.018 (4E-04)

NDVIt-4

-1004.8 (0.01516)

0.77

0.13

36.11

90.42

Takhar

37

 

918.364 (0.0137)

955.91 (0.077)

0.733 (8E-08)

Tt

64.835 (0.0151)

0.92

0.95

340.25

239.61

      

NDVIt-1

8005.4 (0.0017)

    

Uruzgan

41

 

-5.1359 (0.5149)

-0.764 (0.923)

0.219 (0.218)

  

0.07

0.43

30.72

44.06

Wardak

30

 

-17.142 (0.0022)

-4.778 (0.272)

-0.421 (0.048)

  

0.42

0.78

13.31

5.69

  1. Abbreviations: AR = Auto Regression term (cases); T = temperature; NDVI = Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; P = precipitation; Pred = Predicted; RMSE = Root Mean Squared Error.