Detectability of Plasmodium falciparum clones

Malaria Journal

Table 3 Comparison of Models M1-M3

model	age groups	$\bar{q}$			DIC
M1 (binomial)	1	0.50			2870.2
M1 (binomial)	5	0.55, 0.52, 0.49, 0.53, 0.41			2872.3
model	Age groups	$\bar{q}$	var(q)		DIC
M2 (beta-bin.)	1	0.51	0.003		2871.5
M2 (beta-bin.)	5	0.51, 0.46, 0.46, 0.47, 0.46	0.004,0.005,0.005,0.005,0.005		2871.3
Model	age groups	$\bar{q}$	q ₀	q ₁	DIC
M3 (Markov)	1	0.50	0.47	0.59	2856.4
M3 (Markov)	5	0.55, 0.53,0.49, 0.53, 0.41	0.45, 0.44, 0.47, 0.56, 0.46	0.65, 0.64, 0.56, 0.55, 0.45	2860.0

Model results: M3 without age groups fitted the data best, indicated by it's lowest value of DIC. M2 effectively reduced to M1, as it estimated very low variance of detectability. All models estimated a true number of clones of approx. 546 (not shown), and similar values for the mean detectability $\bar{q}$ Values of $\bar{q}$ represent the bias-corrected mean detectability, whereas q₀ and q₁ are not bias corrected, but represent "observed" detectabilities (see section "bias correction").

ISSN: 1475-2875