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Table 1 Actual and predicted malaria cases in endemic districts of Bhutan for two years from 2007 to 2008.

From: Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: A case study in endemic districts of Bhutan

Districts Model Malaria cases Error percentage
   Actual cases Predicted case  
Chukha (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 80 77.09 3.64
Dagana (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 51 49.76 2.43
Pemagatshel (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 41 44.17 -7.72
Samdrup Jongkhar (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 366 356.78 2.52
Samtse (1,1,0)(0,1,1)12 76 57.16 24.80
Sarpang (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 386 383.30 0.70
Zhemgang (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 7 6.59 5.90
All districts (2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 1007.00 1088.80 -8.12