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Table 1 Actual and predicted malaria cases in endemic districts of Bhutan for two years from 2007 to 2008.

From: Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: A case study in endemic districts of Bhutan

Districts

Model

Malaria cases

Error percentage

  

Actual cases

Predicted case

 

Chukha

(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12

80

77.09

3.64

Dagana

(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12

51

49.76

2.43

Pemagatshel

(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12

41

44.17

-7.72

Samdrup Jongkhar

(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12

366

356.78

2.52

Samtse

(1,1,0)(0,1,1)12

76

57.16

24.80

Sarpang

(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12

386

383.30

0.70

Zhemgang

(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12

7

6.59

5.90

All districts

(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12

1007.00

1088.80

-8.12

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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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