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Table 4 P-values and BIC of significant covariates of malaria case in different ARIMAX models for each of the endemic districts and the overall endemic districts of Bhutan.

From: Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: A case study in endemic districts of Bhutan

Models

Covariates

Districts*

  

1

2

4

5

6

All districts

I

Cases

 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.04

0.000

BIC

Temp min

 

792.3911

1524.363

1337.595

1731.596

1812.401

II

Cases,

0.002

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.033

0.000

BIC

Temp min, Hum

1107.768

792.5185

1528.834

1341.371

1735.813

1815.411

III

Cases,

0.001

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.001

0.004

0.038

0.000

BIC

Temp max, Rainfall

1112.112

784.5172

1505.547

1343.952

1734.896

1812.601

IV

Cases,

 

0.000

0.001

   
 

Temp max, Rainfall

0.004

 

0.000

0.038

0.042

0.000

 

Hum

      

BIC

 

1126.668

796.214

1514.975

1345.209

1744.511

1817.437

V

Cases,

 

0.000

    
 

Temp max,

  

0.001

   
 

Temp min, Rainfall,

  

0.001

   
 

Hum

      

BIC

  

789.4534

1514.97

   
  1. * Districts: 1-Chukha, 2-Dagana, 3-Pemagatshel, 4-Samdrup Jongkhar, 5-Samtse, 6-Sarpang, 7-Zhemgang.
  2. Note:- p-value significant at 0.05;
  3. The blank space means it is not significant at p = 0.05;
  4. Districts 3 and 7 did not have any climatic variables significant at p = 0.05, and thus were not included in the table
  5. Cases-previous month malaria cases, Temp max-monthly mean maximum temperature, Temp min-monthly mean minimum temperature, Hum-humidity;
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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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