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Table 4 P-values and BIC of significant covariates of malaria case in different ARIMAX models for each of the endemic districts and the overall endemic districts of Bhutan.

From: Development of temporal modelling for forecasting and prediction of malaria infections using time-series and ARIMAX analyses: A case study in endemic districts of Bhutan

Models Covariates Districts*
   1 2 4 5 6 All districts
I Cases   0.000 0.000 0.000 0.04 0.000
BIC Temp min   792.3911 1524.363 1337.595 1731.596 1812.401
II Cases, 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.000
BIC Temp min, Hum 1107.768 792.5185 1528.834 1341.371 1735.813 1815.411
III Cases, 0.001 0.000 0.000
0.000 		0.001
0.004 		0.038 0.000
BIC Temp max, Rainfall 1112.112 784.5172 1505.547 1343.952 1734.896 1812.601
IV Cases,   0.000 0.001    
  Temp max, Rainfall 0.004   0.000 0.038 0.042 0.000
  Hum       
BIC   1126.668 796.214 1514.975 1345.209 1744.511 1817.437
V Cases,   0.000     
  Temp max,    0.001    
  Temp min, Rainfall,    0.001    
  Hum       
BIC    789.4534 1514.97    
  1. * Districts: 1-Chukha, 2-Dagana, 3-Pemagatshel, 4-Samdrup Jongkhar, 5-Samtse, 6-Sarpang, 7-Zhemgang.
  2. Note:- p-value significant at 0.05;
  3. The blank space means it is not significant at p = 0.05;
  4. Districts 3 and 7 did not have any climatic variables significant at p = 0.05, and thus were not included in the table
  5. Cases-previous month malaria cases, Temp max-monthly mean maximum temperature, Temp min-monthly mean minimum temperature, Hum-humidity;
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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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