Figure 1

Graph panels show changing paediatric hospitalizations rates due to malaria per 1 000 children 0-14 years before and after scaling up of interventions. The data represents paediatric malaria admission rates by month (black solid line); model predictions of paediatric malaria hospitalization rates controlling for non-malaria case rates, rainfall and controlling for autoregressive and moving average effects (dashed blue line). Fitted lines illustrate the linear trends from model predictions (dashed line) for each segment of the period separated by a break point (red dashed vertical line).