Geographical patterns and predictors of malaria risk in Zambia: Bayesian geostatistical modelling of the 2006 Zambia national malaria indicator survey (ZMIS)

Table 3 Predicted number of children <5 years with malaria parasites in the blood (per province)

Province	Prev 1 (in %)	Children <5 years	Infected Children	95%CI		Prev 2 (in %)
Central	26.0	182,847	34,572	21,589	50,252	18.9
Copperbelt	23.3	311,317	37,763	18,572	70,719	12.1
Eastern	37.4	240,137	66,614	46,297	87,219	27.7
Luapula	32.0	125,049	37,943	29,039	47,638	30.3
Lusaka	31.8	275,120	20,134	8,121	46,849	7.3
North-Western	21.0	128,935	29,011	16,200	51,616	22.5
Northern	39.1	277,764	106,322	79,379	135,701	38.3
Southern	18.8	243,743	33,430	19,862	53,854	13.7
Western	14.4	147,229	20,321	12,730	30,232	13.8
Total	26.4	1,932,141	386,110	251,789	574,080	20.0

Estimates are based on the mean and the 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the posterior predictive distribution of the non-spatial model with linear terms.
Prev 1: Model based risk estimates
Prev 2: Model-based population-adjusted prevalence

ISSN: 1475-2875