Parameter | Input value | Source | |
---|---|---|---|
Epidemiology | |||
Percentage of P. falciparum (P.f.)/P. vivax (P.v.) malaria | 65% P.f./35% P.v. | Published data [23], PSI Myanmar stock audit data | |
Proportion of febrile cases in population that are malaria | 8% | PSI Myanmar MIS data (Sun Primary Health) | |
Average number of febrile patients that visit one private provider per month | 20 | PSI Myanmar MIS data (Sun Primary Health) | |
Health outcomes | |||
Case fatality rates for P. falciparum malaria | Given ACT | 0.01% | Very low probability |
Given chloroquine or quinine | 0.7% | Published data on falciparum drug resistance [24] | |
Given no anti-malarial | 3% | Published case fatality rates in Bago [25] and on eastern border of Myanmar [26] | |
Case fatality rates for P. vivax | Given ACT | 0.01% | Very low probability |
Given chloroquine or quinine | 0.01% | Published P. vivax treatment rates with chloroquine in Papua [27] | |
Given no anti-malarial | 1% | Extrapolated from published materials from Papua [28] | |
Case fatality rate for non-malarial febrile illnesses | Given ACT or other anti-malarial | 0.2% | Published data from Bago, Myanmar [25] triangulated with PSI MIS data |
Given no anti-malarial | 0.16% | Published data on burden of disease in Myanmar [29] and non-malarial fevers in Laos [30] | |
Average duration of malaria illness without effective treatment | 1Â week | Published data on hospital records in Myanmar [31] | |
Average duration of non-malarial febrile illness | 1Â week | Assumption | |
DALY weight of malaria | 0.2 | Published data [21] | |
DALY weight of non-malarial fever | 0.18 | Estimated from published data [22] | |
Mean life expectancy in Myanmar | 62Â years | ||
Average age of malaria-induced death in intervention townships | 25Â years | PSI Myanmar MIS data | |
Average age of non-malarial febrile death in Myanmar | 30Â years | PSI Myanmar MIS data | |
Discount rate | 3% | Standard rate | |
Diagnostic test characteristics | |||
RDT sensitivity and specificity | P. falciparum sensitivity | 100% | Published RDT performance [35] |
P. falciparum specificity | 97% | Published RDT performance [35] | |
Pan plasmodium sensitivity | 92% | Published RDT performance [35] | |
Pan plasmodium specificity | 98% | Published RDT performance [35] |