Fig. 3

Composition of the infectious reservoir in the absence of interventions.a The composition of the infectious reservoir by diagnostic detectability and age in a setting with moderate transmission. A region of EIR = 10 was simulated over three years with seasonal rainfall and temperature based on Burkina Faso climate. The entire population was tested for asexual parasite prevalence daily for three years with diagnostics at three levels of sensitivity: 100 parasites/μL (bottom 3 stripes, pink), 10 parasites/μL (3 stripes second from bottom, yellow), and 0.05 parasites/μL (3 stripes third from bottom, blue). Infections undetectable at 0.05 parasites/μL are shown in grey (top 3 stripes). Infectiousness was calculated by simulating a membrane-feeding test and subsequently scaling by age to approximate surface area effects. The fraction of the infectious reservoir is the normalization of total infectiousness. The average of 100 stochastic realizations is shown. b Annual average composition of the infectious reservoir under a range of transmission intensities. All measurements were averaged over the second year of simulation. 1000 stochastic realizations were averaged for each EIR level