Fig. 5

Depletion of the infectious reservoir after mass drug campaigns with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP). a Probability of elimination after two consecutive years of mass drug campaigns at three rounds per year. See Methods for details of timing of campaign rounds. Case management and ITNs were simulated as in Fig. 4. Probability of elimination was the fraction of 100 stochastic realizations resulting in complete elimination of all parasites by the end of year 3. Coverage was independent for all rounds and all interventions. For simulations with case management and ITNs, EIR is the EIR that would have been experienced during the second year of simulation had the drug campaigns not been administered. Crosses indicate the EIR, coverage and MSAT diagnostic sensitivity simulated in panel B. b The infectious reservoir before, during and after MSAT campaigns in areas with apparent EIR = 1, MSAT diagnostic sensitivity 20/μL, and 80 % coverage. Left: asexual parasite prevalence and human infectiousness in an endemic region with EIR 1 and no interventions. Right: asexual parasite prevalence and human infectiousness in a region where case management and ITN campaigns have reduced EIR to 1