Drug | IC50 | True WoS | Clinical WoS |
|---|
Method 1, current | Method 2, new |
|---|
10th | 25th | 50th | 10th | 25th | 50th |
|---|
AR-LF | Default to 15-fold | 17 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 16 | BF |
15-fold to 50-fold | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
AS-MQ | Default to 15-fold | 37 | 5 | 4 | 6 | BF | BF | BF |
15-fold to 50-fold | 17 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 18 | BF |
DHA-PPQ | Default to twofold | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | BF |
Twofold to fivefold | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 14 |
- Simulations of 5,000 patients, followed for 63 days after treatment, infected with increasingly drug-resistant parasites and treated with artemether–lumefantrine (AR-LF), artesunate–mefloquine (AS-MQ) or dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine (DHA-PPQ). True windows of selection (WoS) were calculated by comparing the days on which 50% of emergences were successful (red dashed lines on Fig. 2; full details in main text). Two methods were used to calculate the clinical WoS: All new infections occurring after the 63-day follow-up period were either removed from the analysis (Method 1) or re-classified arbitrarily as occurring at day 70 (Method 2). The clinical WoS for each method were reported using either the tenth, 25th or 50th centile cut-offs. The cumulative differences in WoS were calculated for each treatment in absolute units i.e. the duration (in days) of the WoS.
-
BF beyond follow-up.
